RiskAnalyzer

RiskAnalyzer class

Performs a Monte Carlo simulation based on the specified risk analysis settings.

public class RiskAnalyzer

Constructors

Name Description
RiskAnalyzer(RiskAnalysisSettings) Initializes a new instance of the RiskAnalyzer class.

Properties

Name Description
Settings { get; set; } Gets or sets the instance of the RiskAnalysisSettings class which defines necessary settings for risk analysis.

Methods

Name Description
Analyze(Project) Performs risk analysis for the specified project. The analysis is based on Monte Carlo simulation and the result is an instance of the RiskAnalysisResult class.

Examples

Shows how to start analysis of risks by using <see cref=“Aspose.Tasks.RiskAnalysis.RiskAnalysisSettings” />.

var settings = new RiskAnalysisSettings
{
    IterationsCount = 200
};

var project = new Project(DataDir + "Software Development Plan-1.mpp");
var task = project.RootTask.Children.GetById(17);

// Initialize a risk pattern
var pattern = new RiskPattern(task)
{
    // Select a distribution type for the random number generator to generate possible values from (only two types currently supported, namely normal and uniform)            
    // For more details see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution)
    Distribution = ProbabilityDistributionType.Normal,

    // Set the percentage of the most likely task duration which can happen in the best possible project scenario 
    // The default value is 75, which means that if the estimated specified task duration is 4 days then the optimistic duration will be 3 days
    Optimistic = 70,

    // Set the percentage of the most likely task duration which can happen in the worst possible project scenario 
    // The default value is 125, which means that if the estimated specified task duration is 4 days then the pessimistic duration will be 5 days.
    Pessimistic = 130,

    // Set a confidence level that correspond to the percentage of the time the actual values will be within optimistic and pessimistic estimates. 
    // You can think of it as a value of standard deviation: the more uncertain about your estimates you are, the more the value of standard deviation used in random number generator is
    ConfidenceLevel = ConfidenceLevel.CL75
};
settings.Patterns.Add(pattern);

// Analyze the project risks
var analyzer = new RiskAnalyzer(settings);
var analysisResult = analyzer.Analyze(project);
var earlyFinish = analysisResult.GetRiskItems(RiskItemType.EarlyFinish).Get(project.RootTask);

Console.WriteLine("Expected value: {0}", earlyFinish.ExpectedValue);
Console.WriteLine("StandardDeviation: {0}", earlyFinish.StandardDeviation);
Console.WriteLine("10% Percentile: {0}", earlyFinish.GetPercentile(10));
Console.WriteLine("50% Percentile: {0}", earlyFinish.GetPercentile(50));
Console.WriteLine("90% Percentile: {0}", earlyFinish.GetPercentile(90));
Console.WriteLine("Minimum: {0}", earlyFinish.Minimum);
Console.WriteLine("Maximum: {0}", earlyFinish.Maximum);

settings = new RiskAnalysisSettings
{
    IterationsCount = 300
};

// change settings
analyzer.Settings = settings;

analysisResult = analyzer.Analyze(project);
earlyFinish = analysisResult.GetRiskItems(RiskItemType.EarlyFinish).Get(project.RootTask);

Console.WriteLine("Expected value: {0}", earlyFinish.ExpectedValue);
Console.WriteLine("StandardDeviation: {0}", earlyFinish.StandardDeviation);
Console.WriteLine("10% Percentile: {0}", earlyFinish.GetPercentile(10));
Console.WriteLine("50% Percentile: {0}", earlyFinish.GetPercentile(50));
Console.WriteLine("90% Percentile: {0}", earlyFinish.GetPercentile(90));
Console.WriteLine("Minimum: {0}", earlyFinish.Minimum);
Console.WriteLine("Maximum: {0}", earlyFinish.Maximum);

analysisResult.SaveReport(OutDir + "AnalysisReport_out.pdf");

See Also